Market analysis

Fundamental analysis

Also calledfundamental valuation

Fundamental analysis evaluates economic, financial, and asset-specific information to estimate value or assess forces that may affect supply, demand, income, growth, or policy. In forex, it commonly examines inflation, employment, output, interest-rate expectations, trade flows, and central-bank decisions across the two currencies.

What Fundamental analysis means

Unlike chart-based analysis, fundamental analysis starts with information about the economy or asset rather than past price patterns. For a currency pair, it may compare inflation data and monetary-policy conditions in both countries. The process involves interpretation: an economic result can be strong in isolation yet already reflected in market expectations or offset by other developments.

Fundamental analysis is especially relevant to currencies because exchange rates reflect relative conditions between jurisdictions, not one country alone. It helps explain why scheduled data and central-bank communications receive attention. However, an accurate economic assessment may not produce a timely market move, and market prices can change before, during, or after new information is released.

Consider EUR/USD before policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. An analyst might compare each institution’s stated inflation concerns, policy rates, and new economic projections. If the Fed signals a different policy path than markets expected, the analysis is the comparison of new information with expectations—not a certainty about EUR/USD’s next move.

Common questions

How does fundamental analysis differ from technical analysis?+

Fundamental analysis uses economic, industry, company, or asset information to assess value and conditions. Technical analysis uses market data such as price and volume to study price behavior and possible market trends.

Why is relative analysis important in forex?+

A currency pair expresses one currency’s price in another. Information affecting either economy, including relative inflation or expected interest rates, can influence the pair’s exchange rate.

Go to the original material.

01CFA Institute — Equity Valuation: Concepts and Basic Tools02Federal Reserve Board — Statistical Release Calendar