Market analysis

Nonfarm payrolls

Also calledNFP · nonfarm payroll employment · payroll employment

Nonfarm payrolls, often called NFP, are the monthly U.S. estimate of employment on nonfarm business and government payrolls, produced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics establishment survey. The figure is published in the Employment Situation report alongside other labor-market measures, and it is subject to revision.

What Nonfarm payrolls means

The commonly cited NFP number is the month-to-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment. It is different from the unemployment rate, which comes from a separate household survey with different definitions and methods. The Employment Situation also includes earnings and hours data, which can influence how markets interpret the payroll headline.

Nonfarm payrolls are closely watched because employment, earnings, and hours can affect assessments of U.S. economic momentum and monetary policy. For forex, the result can influence the U.S. dollar and dollar pairs, but the reaction depends on expectations, revisions, accompanying data, and broader market conditions. The release does not determine a single predictable direction.

Assume consensus expected payrolls to rise by 180,000. The initial release reports 230,000, while the prior month is revised down by 70,000 and average hourly earnings are weaker than expected. Calling the report simply “strong” would omit material information. Markets may weigh the surprise, revisions, and wages differently, and the initial estimate may be revised in later months.

Common questions

When is the NFP report released?+

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation monthly, usually on the first Friday after the reference month, although the schedule can vary. Check the BLS release calendar for the official date and 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time release time.

Why can payrolls and the unemployment rate point in different directions?+

They come from separate surveys. Payroll employment is measured through the establishment survey, while the unemployment rate is measured through the household survey; their coverage, definitions, sampling, and estimation methods differ.

Go to the original material.

01U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics overview02U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Comparing household and payroll surveys03U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation release schedule